Baseline Models
Kahlil Wehmeyer
3/18/2019
Preface
I know the forecasts are super far ahead and the plots seem a big far out. For the plots you can scrub your mouse on a certain section of the plot to zoom in. Double click to reset the axis
Total Employment
##
## Ljung-Box test
##
## data: Residuals from Regression with ARIMA(12,1,0) errors
## Q* = 14.63, df = 3, p-value = 0.002162
##
## Model df: 23. Total lags used: 26## Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
## Feb 2019 184.0341 181.9911 186.0770 180.9096 187.1585
## Mar 2019 187.2406 184.8634 189.6177 183.6050 190.8761
## Apr 2019 188.9979 186.3282 191.6676 184.9149 193.0809
## May 2019 189.2513 186.2614 192.2412 184.6786 193.8239
## Jun 2019 189.1052 185.7292 192.4812 183.9420 194.2684
## Jul 2019 188.6804 184.9413 192.4196 182.9620 194.3989
## Aug 2019 188.4419 184.3371 192.5467 182.1642 194.7196
## Sep 2019 188.6645 184.2016 193.1274 181.8390 195.4899
## Oct 2019 188.5724 183.7026 193.4421 181.1247 196.0200
## Nov 2019 189.7205 184.4466 194.9943 181.6547 197.7862
## Dec 2019 190.9028 185.2270 196.5787 182.2224 199.5833
## Jan 2020 191.1250 185.0307 197.2192 181.8046 200.4453
## Feb 2020 189.1886 182.6759 195.7013 179.2283 199.1489
## Mar 2020 192.3937 185.4686 199.3188 181.8027 202.9847
## Apr 2020 193.9529 186.6145 201.2912 182.7299 205.1759
## May 2020 193.9009 186.1351 201.6668 182.0241 205.7778
## Jun 2020 193.7116 185.5189 201.9042 181.1820 206.2412
## Jul 2020 193.1796 184.5606 201.7986 179.9980 206.3612
## Aug 2020 192.8909 183.8438 201.9380 179.0545 206.7273
## Sep 2020 192.8410 183.3618 202.3202 178.3439 207.3381
## Oct 2020 192.6431 182.7319 202.5544 177.4852 207.8011
## Nov 2020 193.6973 183.3547 204.0399 177.8797 209.5149
## Dec 2020 194.7287 183.9514 205.5060 178.2463 211.2112
## Jan 2021 194.8537 183.6413 206.0662 177.7058 212.0017
## Feb 2021 192.8467 181.2007 204.4928 175.0356 210.6579
## Mar 2021 195.9582 183.8791 208.0374 177.4848 214.4317
## Apr 2021 197.3649 184.8512 209.8785 178.2269 216.5029
## May 2021 197.2230 184.2754 210.1707 177.4213 217.0248
## Jun 2021 196.9473 183.5668 210.3278 176.4836 217.4110
## Jul 2021 196.3250 182.5117 210.1383 175.1994 217.4505
## Aug 2021 195.9343 181.6888 210.1799 174.1476 217.7211
## Sep 2021 195.7992 181.1225 210.4759 173.3531 218.2453
## Oct 2021 195.5228 180.4162 210.6293 172.4192 218.6263
## Nov 2021 196.4804 180.9445 212.0163 172.7203 220.2405
## Dec 2021 197.4304 181.4662 213.3945 173.0152 221.8455
## Jan 2022 197.4850 181.0940 213.8759 172.4171 222.5528
## Feb 2022 195.4057 178.5893 212.2220 169.6872 221.1241
## Mar 2022 198.4348 181.1941 215.6755 172.0675 224.8021
## Apr 2022 199.7696 182.1061 217.4330 172.7556 226.7835
## May 2022 199.5612 181.4766 217.6458 171.9031 227.2192
## Jun 2022 199.2156 180.7112 217.7199 170.9156 227.5155
## Jul 2022 198.5258 179.6032 217.4483 169.5862 227.4653
## Aug 2022 198.0728 178.7338 217.4118 168.4964 227.6493
## Sep 2022 197.8775 178.1238 217.6312 167.6668 228.0882
## Oct 2022 197.5379 177.3712 217.7047 166.6955 228.3803
## Nov 2022 198.4362 177.8581 219.0142 166.9647 229.9076
## Dec 2022 199.3309 178.3434 220.3184 167.2333 231.4285
## Jan 2023 199.3308 177.9356 220.7259 166.6097 232.0518
## Feb 2023 197.1965 175.3956 218.9975 163.8549 230.5382
## Mar 2023 200.1737 177.9688 222.3785 166.2143 234.1330
## Apr 2023 201.4588 178.8520 224.0656 166.8847 236.0329
## May 2023 201.2006 178.1938 224.2075 166.0147 236.3866
## Jun 2023 200.8068 177.4018 224.2118 165.0119 236.6017
## Jul 2023 200.0712 176.2700 223.8724 163.6704 236.4720
## Aug 2023 199.5738 175.3784 223.7692 162.5701 236.5775
## Sep 2023 199.3343 174.7466 223.9220 161.7307 236.9379
## Oct 2023 198.9521 173.9742 223.9301 160.7517 237.1526
## Nov 2023 199.8096 174.4434 225.1758 161.0154 238.6039
## Dec 2023 200.6644 174.9119 226.4169 161.2794 240.0494
## Jan 2024 200.6252 174.4885 226.7620 160.6525 240.5980
## Feb 2024 198.4534 171.9344 224.9725 157.8961 239.0108
## Mar 2024 201.3942 174.4949 228.2936 160.2553 242.5332
## Apr 2024 202.6437 175.3661 229.9213 160.9262 244.3612
## May 2024 202.3510 174.6971 230.0048 160.0580 244.6439
## Jun 2024 201.9238 173.8956 229.9519 159.0584 244.7891
## Jul 2024 201.1558 172.7554 229.5562 157.7211 244.5905
## Aug 2024 200.6267 171.8560 229.3975 156.6257 244.6278
## Sep 2024 200.3566 171.2175 229.4956 155.7922 244.9209
## Oct 2024 199.9447 170.4394 229.4501 154.8202 245.0693
## Nov 2024 200.7734 170.9036 230.6431 155.0915 246.4552
## Dec 2024 201.6000 171.3679 231.8322 155.3640 247.8361
## Jan 2025 201.5337 170.9411 232.1262 154.7464 248.3210
## Feb 2025 199.3355 168.3845 230.2865 152.0000 246.6710
## Mar 2025 202.2506 170.9430 233.5582 154.3698 250.1314
## Apr 2025 203.4752 171.8130 235.1374 155.0520 251.8983
## May 2025 203.1582 171.1434 235.1731 154.1957 252.1208
## Jun 2025 202.7076 170.3419 235.0732 153.2086 252.2066
## Jul 2025 201.9168 169.2023 234.6313 151.8842 251.9494
## Aug 2025 201.3656 168.3040 234.4271 150.8023 251.9288
## Sep 2025 201.0739 167.6673 234.4806 149.9829 252.1650
## Oct 2025 200.6413 166.8914 234.3911 149.0253 252.2573
## Nov 2025 201.4496 167.3583 235.5409 149.3115 253.5877
## Dec 2025 202.2566 167.8258 236.6875 149.5992 254.9140
## Jan 2026 202.1712 167.4026 236.9397 148.9972 255.3451
## Feb 2026 199.9544 164.8500 235.0589 146.2668 253.6421
## Mar 2026 202.8515 167.4129 238.2901 148.6529 257.0502
## Apr 2026 204.0586 168.2877 239.8296 149.3517 258.7655
## May 2026 203.7247 167.6232 239.8262 148.5123 258.9372
## Jun 2026 203.2576 166.8273 239.6879 147.5423 258.9729
## Jul 2026 202.4508 165.6935 239.2081 146.2353 258.6663
## Aug 2026 201.8840 164.8014 238.9667 145.1710 258.5970
## Sep 2026 201.5773 164.1711 238.9836 144.3694 258.7852
## Oct 2026 201.1300 163.4019 238.8581 143.4298 258.8302
## Nov 2026 201.9241 163.8758 239.9724 143.7342 260.1140
## Dec 2026 202.7173 164.3505 241.0842 144.0403 261.3944
## Jan 2027 202.6185 163.9348 241.3022 143.4569 261.7801
## Feb 2027 200.3888 161.3898 239.3877 140.7451 260.0324
## Mar 2027 203.2732 163.9607 242.5857 143.1500 263.3965
## Apr 2027 204.4680 164.8436 244.0925 143.8677 265.0684
## May 2027 204.1222 164.1874 244.0570 143.0472 265.1972
## Jun 2027 203.6435 163.4000 243.8871 142.0963 265.1907
## Jul 2027 202.8255 162.2748 243.3762 140.8085 264.8425
## Aug 2027 202.2479 161.3915 243.1042 139.7635 264.7323
## Sep 2027 201.9306 160.7701 243.0910 138.9811 264.8800
## Oct 2027 201.4730 160.0100 242.9359 138.0608 264.8851
## Nov 2027 202.2571 160.4931 244.0211 138.3846 266.1296
## Dec 2027 203.0406 160.9772 245.1041 138.7101 267.3712
## Jan 2028 202.9324 160.5709 245.2939 138.1461 267.7187
## Feb 2028 200.6935 158.0355 243.3516 135.4537 265.9334
## Mar 2028 203.5691 160.6160 246.5222 137.8780 269.2602
## Apr 2028 204.7553 161.5086 248.0021 138.6152 270.8955
## May 2028 204.4012 160.8623 247.9401 137.8141 270.9882
## Jun 2028 203.9143 160.0847 247.7440 136.8827 270.9460
## Jul 2028 203.0885 158.9694 247.2075 135.6142 270.5627
## Aug 2028 202.5032 158.0962 246.9101 134.5886 270.4177
## Sep 2028 202.1784 157.4849 246.8720 133.8256 270.5313
## Oct 2028 201.7136 156.7349 246.6923 132.9246 270.5026
## Nov 2028 202.4908 157.2282 247.7533 133.2677 271.7139
## Dec 2028 203.2675 157.7225 248.8126 133.6124 272.9227
## Jan 2029 203.1527 157.3264 248.9789 133.0675 273.2378
## Feb 2029 200.9074 154.8013 247.0134 130.3943 271.4205
## Mar 2029 203.7768 157.3922 250.1613 132.8376 274.7159
## Apr 2029 204.9569 158.2951 251.6188 133.5938 276.3200
## May 2029 204.5969 157.6591 251.5347 132.8117 276.3820
## Jun 2029 204.1044 156.8919 251.3169 131.8991 276.3096
## Jul 2029 203.2730 155.7871 250.7589 130.6495 275.8964
## Aug 2029 202.6823 154.9242 250.4404 129.6426 275.7220
## Sep 2029 202.3524 154.3233 250.3814 128.8983 275.8065
## Oct 2029 201.8825 153.5837 250.1813 128.0159 275.7491
## Nov 2029 202.6547 154.0874 251.2221 128.3774 276.9321
## Dec 2029 203.4267 154.5920 252.2614 128.7405 278.1129
## Jan 2030 203.3072 154.2064 252.4080 128.2140 278.4004
## Feb 2030 201.0574 151.6917 250.4232 125.5590 276.5559
## Mar 2030 203.9225 154.2929 253.5521 128.0205 279.8244
## Apr 2030 205.0984 155.2061 254.9906 128.7948 281.4020
## May 2030 204.7342 154.5805 254.8880 128.0307 281.4378
## Jun 2030 204.2377 153.8236 254.6519 127.1359 281.3396
## Jul 2030 203.4024 152.7290 254.0759 125.9041 280.9008
## Aug 2030 202.8080 151.8764 253.7396 124.9148 280.7012
## Sep 2030 202.4744 151.2858 253.6631 124.1881 280.7607
## Oct 2030 202.0010 150.5563 253.4457 123.3232 280.6788
## Nov 2030 202.7698 151.0702 254.4693 123.7021 281.8374
## Dec 2030 203.5384 151.5850 255.4918 124.0825 282.9943
## Jan 2031 203.4157 151.2095 255.6219 123.5732 283.2581
## Feb 2031 201.1627 148.7048 253.6207 120.9353 281.3902
## Mar 2031 201.1700 148.4613 253.8786 120.5591 281.7809
## Apr 2031 204.0317 151.0734 256.9900 123.0389 285.0245
## May 2031 205.2045 151.9975 258.4114 123.8314 286.5775## Series: TSA[, "All_Employees"]
## Regression with ARIMA(12,1,0) errors
##
## Coefficients:
## ar1 ar2 ar3 ar4 ar5 ar6 ar7 ar8
## -0.1956 0.1100 0.1532 0.1178 0.0053 0.0813 0.2221 0.0851
## s.e. 0.0848 0.0868 0.0868 0.0876 0.0876 0.0849 0.0855 0.0871
## ar9 ar10 ar11 ar12 month_2 month_3 month_4 month_5
## 0.0214 -0.0182 0.1215 0.0907 2.8547 4.0207 3.6469 3.1410
## s.e. 0.0874 0.0865 0.0854 0.0844 0.2137 0.2553 0.2855 0.3057
## month_6 month_7 month_8 month_9 month_10 month_11 month_12
## 2.2966 1.6933 1.3511 0.8693 1.6300 2.3907 2.2603
## s.e. 0.3101 0.3109 0.3104 0.3062 0.2858 0.2554 0.2135
##
## sigma^2 estimated as 0.6927: log likelihood=-165.99
## AIC=379.98 AICc=390.06 BIC=451.25
##
## Training set error measures:
## ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE
## Training set 0.05452474 0.7602988 0.5651304 0.03348026 0.3529471 0.1227341
## ACF1
## Training set 0.0005093212Average Weekly Earnings
##
## Ljung-Box test
##
## data: Residuals from Regression with ARIMA(12,1,0) errors
## Q* = 18.44, df = 3, p-value = 0.0003569
##
## Model df: 23. Total lags used: 26## Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
## Feb 2019 693.1162 650.9327 735.2998 628.6021 757.6304
## Mar 2019 701.6624 652.9071 750.4176 627.0977 776.2271
## Apr 2019 711.4016 657.8960 764.9072 629.5719 793.2314
## May 2019 706.4122 649.0844 763.7400 618.7369 794.0874
## Jun 2019 698.4736 637.1418 759.8053 604.6747 792.2724
## Jul 2019 691.6952 626.8664 756.5239 592.5481 790.8422
## Aug 2019 681.6208 611.4690 751.7725 574.3330 788.9086
## Sep 2019 679.2744 603.4961 755.0526 563.3815 795.1672
## Oct 2019 688.1279 607.1167 769.1391 564.2320 812.0238
## Nov 2019 680.4088 595.6376 765.1799 550.7625 810.0550
## Dec 2019 690.3122 601.1219 779.5024 553.9075 826.7169
## Jan 2020 693.9910 600.7457 787.2363 551.3846 836.5974
## Feb 2020 691.3514 594.6483 788.0544 543.4568 839.2459
## Mar 2020 697.6185 597.7620 797.4751 544.9012 850.3359
## Apr 2020 703.3376 600.1906 806.4847 545.5878 861.0875
## May 2020 700.9756 594.2576 807.6936 537.7645 864.1867
## Jun 2020 686.1301 575.8362 796.4241 517.4501 854.8102
## Jul 2020 689.4871 575.5723 803.4019 515.2694 863.7048
## Aug 2020 686.4074 569.4113 803.4035 507.4773 865.3375
## Sep 2020 684.0453 563.9790 804.1116 500.4198 867.6709
## Oct 2020 683.6028 560.4968 806.7089 495.3284 871.8773
## Nov 2020 680.5175 554.4471 806.5879 487.7094 873.3256
## Dec 2020 692.4101 563.7006 821.1196 495.5659 889.2543
## Jan 2021 692.4632 561.0748 823.8517 491.5219 893.4045
## Feb 2021 688.0774 553.8739 822.2808 482.8309 893.3238
## Mar 2021 694.6593 557.6532 831.6654 485.1265 904.1920
## Apr 2021 703.1093 563.3667 842.8518 489.3914 916.8271
## May 2021 702.1479 559.8123 844.4835 484.4643 919.8314
## Jun 2021 689.6688 544.7893 834.5482 468.0948 911.2427
## Jul 2021 688.8920 541.5309 836.2530 463.5227 914.2613
## Aug 2021 685.3493 535.4960 835.2026 456.1685 914.5302
## Sep 2021 684.5081 532.2937 836.7226 451.7163 917.3000
## Oct 2021 684.7022 530.1696 839.2347 448.3650 921.0394
## Nov 2021 678.8583 521.9783 835.7383 438.9310 918.7855
## Dec 2021 690.5654 531.3043 849.8264 446.9966 934.1341
## Jan 2022 692.6990 531.1220 854.2760 445.5883 939.8097
## Feb 2022 688.9167 525.1000 852.7335 438.3807 939.4528
## Mar 2022 695.7934 529.7608 861.8261 441.8684 949.7185
## Apr 2022 703.2094 534.9929 871.4260 445.9444 960.4744
## May 2022 701.8858 531.5024 872.2693 441.3068 962.4648
## Jun 2022 689.2851 516.7854 861.7849 425.4695 953.1007
## Jul 2022 689.5224 514.9355 864.1094 422.5147 956.5302
## Aug 2022 685.0973 508.4398 861.7547 414.9230 955.2715
## Sep 2022 683.5454 504.8034 862.2875 410.1831 956.9078
## Oct 2022 684.3839 503.5851 865.1826 407.8761 960.8916
## Nov 2022 679.5434 496.7350 862.3519 399.9620 959.1249
## Dec 2022 691.1488 506.3590 875.9386 408.5372 973.7605
## Jan 2023 692.6043 505.8447 879.3638 406.9802 978.2283
## Feb 2023 688.8210 500.1084 877.5335 400.2100 977.4319
## Mar 2023 695.6608 505.0269 886.2946 404.1114 987.2101
## Apr 2023 703.3696 510.8342 895.9051 408.9120 997.8273
## May 2023 701.8531 507.4322 896.2740 404.5120 999.1942
## Jun 2023 689.0145 492.7128 885.3163 388.7969 989.2321
## Jul 2023 689.2004 491.0344 887.3664 386.1317 992.2691
## Aug 2023 685.3355 485.3297 885.3413 379.4530 991.2180
## Sep 2023 683.9365 482.1159 885.7570 375.2786 992.5944
## Oct 2023 684.3927 480.7692 888.0163 372.9774 995.8081
## Nov 2023 679.3749 473.9595 884.7903 365.2192 993.5307
## Dec 2023 691.1056 483.9183 898.2930 374.2399 1007.9714
## Jan 2024 692.7121 483.7709 901.6532 373.1642 1012.2600
## Feb 2024 688.7909 478.1087 899.4731 366.5803 1011.0015
## Mar 2024 695.5643 483.1494 907.9793 370.7037 1020.4250
## Apr 2024 703.2323 489.0983 917.3663 375.7426 1030.7220
## May 2024 701.9088 486.0716 917.7460 371.8143 1032.0033
## Jun 2024 689.1837 471.6606 906.7068 356.5108 1021.8565
## Jul 2024 689.2770 470.0800 908.4740 354.0441 1024.5099
## Aug 2024 685.2353 464.3748 906.0958 347.4583 1023.0123
## Sep 2024 683.8708 461.3594 906.3821 343.5690 1024.1725
## Oct 2024 684.4564 460.3088 908.6040 341.6522 1027.2606
## Nov 2024 679.3961 453.6240 905.1681 334.1075 1024.6846
## Dec 2024 691.0487 463.6608 918.4366 343.2889 1038.8084
## Jan 2025 692.6429 463.6499 921.6359 342.4283 1042.8575
## Feb 2025 688.8172 458.2314 919.4029 336.1667 1041.4676
## Mar 2025 695.6303 463.4645 927.7960 340.5634 1050.6971
## Apr 2025 703.2796 469.5441 937.0150 345.8121 1060.7471
## May 2025 701.8746 466.5791 937.1701 342.0212 1061.7281
## Jun 2025 689.1390 452.2933 925.9847 326.9148 1051.3632
## Jul 2025 689.2900 450.9053 927.6748 324.7121 1053.8680
## Aug 2025 685.2660 445.3525 925.1795 318.3499 1052.1821
## Sep 2025 683.8535 442.4197 925.2872 314.6124 1053.0945
## Oct 2025 684.4126 441.4673 927.3578 312.8599 1055.9653
## Nov 2025 679.4020 434.9551 923.8489 305.5527 1053.2513
## Dec 2025 691.0843 445.1460 937.0227 314.9541 1067.2146
## Jan 2026 692.6665 445.2456 940.0874 314.2689 1071.0641
## Feb 2026 688.8020 439.9069 937.6972 308.1498 1069.4543
## Mar 2026 695.6100 445.2491 945.9709 312.7160 1078.5040
## Apr 2026 703.2785 451.4608 955.0962 318.1565 1088.4004
## May 2026 701.8907 448.6248 955.1566 314.5539 1089.2274
## Jun 2026 689.1389 434.4327 943.8451 299.5994 1078.6784
## Jul 2026 689.2697 433.1308 945.4085 297.5391 1081.0002
## Aug 2026 685.2604 427.6970 942.8238 291.3511 1079.1697
## Sep 2026 683.8708 424.8912 942.8505 287.7956 1079.9460
## Oct 2026 684.4283 424.0402 944.8164 286.1991 1082.6576
## Nov 2026 679.3947 417.6055 941.1840 279.0226 1079.7669
## Dec 2026 691.0728 427.8896 954.2559 288.5689 1093.5766
## Jan 2027 692.6651 428.0956 957.2345 288.0410 1097.2891
## Feb 2027 688.8099 422.8615 954.7583 282.0769 1095.5429
## Mar 2027 695.6115 428.2912 962.9319 286.7804 1104.4427
## Apr 2027 703.2708 434.5853 971.9564 292.3518 1114.1899
## May 2027 701.8854 431.8416 971.9291 288.8890 1114.8817
## Jun 2027 689.1450 417.7500 960.5400 274.0821 1104.2079
## Jul 2027 689.2790 416.5395 962.0185 272.1599 1106.3980
## Aug 2027 685.2590 411.1815 959.3364 266.0936 1104.4243
## Sep 2027 683.8638 408.4547 959.2728 262.6619 1105.0656
## Oct 2027 684.4263 407.6921 961.1605 261.1978 1107.6547
## Nov 2027 679.3993 401.3464 957.4522 254.1540 1104.6445
## Dec 2027 691.0744 411.7089 970.4398 263.8218 1118.3269
## Jan 2028 692.6618 411.9899 973.3337 263.4111 1121.9124
## Feb 2028 688.8068 406.8344 970.7792 257.5672 1120.0463
## Mar 2028 695.6136 412.3469 978.8804 262.3945 1128.8328
## Apr 2028 703.2753 418.7201 987.8305 268.0856 1138.4649
## May 2028 701.8859 416.0480 987.7238 264.7346 1139.0372
## Jun 2028 689.1416 402.0267 976.2565 250.0372 1128.2460
## Jul 2028 689.2770 400.8907 977.6632 248.2282 1130.3257
## Aug 2028 685.2610 395.6091 974.9130 242.2766 1128.2455
## Sep 2028 683.8654 392.9532 974.7776 238.9536 1128.7772
## Oct 2028 684.4249 392.2580 976.5919 237.5941 1131.2558
## Nov 2028 679.3973 385.9808 972.8138 230.6555 1128.1391
## Dec 2028 691.0751 396.4145 985.7357 240.4305 1141.7196
## Jan 2029 692.6639 396.7644 988.5634 240.1247 1145.2031
## Feb 2029 688.8074 391.6742 985.9406 234.3814 1143.2334
## Mar 2029 695.6121 397.2503 993.9740 239.3071 1151.9172
## Apr 2029 703.2740 403.6885 1002.8595 245.0976 1161.4505
## May 2029 701.8866 401.0825 1002.6907 241.8464 1161.9267
## Jun 2029 689.1427 387.1249 991.1605 227.2464 1151.0390
## Jul 2029 689.2767 386.0500 992.5033 225.5316 1153.0218
## Aug 2029 685.2599 380.8292 989.6906 219.6733 1150.8464
## Sep 2029 683.8654 378.2354 989.4954 216.4447 1151.2862
## Oct 2029 684.4260 377.6014 991.2506 215.1783 1153.6738
## Nov 2029 679.3978 371.3832 987.4124 208.3302 1150.4654
## Dec 2029 691.0744 381.8744 1000.2744 218.1938 1163.9549
## Jan 2030 692.6632 382.2823 1003.0441 217.9766 1167.3498
## Feb 2030 688.8076 377.2504 1000.3649 212.3219 1165.2933
## Mar 2030 695.6127 382.8835 1008.3420 217.3347 1173.8908
## Apr 2030 703.2740 389.3772 1017.1709 223.2103 1183.3378
## May 2030 701.8860 386.8259 1016.9461 220.0432 1183.7289
## Jun 2030 689.1425 372.9234 1005.3616 205.5272 1172.7579
## Jul 2030 689.2771 371.9033 1006.6510 203.8957 1174.6586
## Aug 2030 685.2603 366.7358 1003.7847 198.1192 1172.4013
## Sep 2030 683.8652 364.1943 1003.5360 194.9708 1172.7595
## Oct 2030 684.4256 363.6124 1005.2388 193.7842 1175.0670
## Nov 2030 679.3978 357.4464 1001.3493 187.0155 1171.7801
## Dec 2030 691.0747 367.9890 1014.1605 196.9577 1185.1917
## Jan 2031 692.6633 368.4472 1016.8793 196.8176 1188.5089
## Feb 2031 688.8074 363.4649 1014.1498 191.2391 1186.3757
## Mar 2031 688.8074 362.3425 1015.2724 189.5224 1188.0925
## Apr 2031 695.6127 368.0291 1023.1963 194.6169 1196.6085
## May 2031 703.2742 374.5758 1031.9726 200.5734 1205.9750## Series: TSA[, "Average_Weekly_Earnings"]
## Regression with ARIMA(12,1,0) errors
##
## Coefficients:
## ar1 ar2 ar3 ar4 ar5 ar6 ar7 ar8
## -0.1114 0.0157 0.0154 0.1578 -0.0723 -0.0915 0.0361 -0.0436
## s.e. 0.0835 0.0836 0.0835 0.0795 0.0797 0.0809 0.0799 0.0825
## ar9 ar10 ar11 ar12 month_2 month_3 month_4 month_5
## 0.2762 0.1586 -0.013 -0.1628 6.8052 14.4667 13.0788 0.3351
## s.e. 0.0851 0.0885 0.089 0.0919 3.8854 4.8827 5.6098 6.3260
## month_6 month_7 month_8 month_9 month_10 month_11 month_12
## 0.4695 -3.5472 -4.9422 -4.3818 -9.4097 2.2672 3.8559
## s.e. 6.8607 7.0703 6.8503 6.3205 5.6003 4.8704 3.8848
##
## sigma^2 estimated as 310.5: log likelihood=-605.69
## AIC=1259.37 AICc=1269.46 BIC=1330.65
##
## Training set error measures:
## ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE
## Training set -0.4507013 16.09585 11.54804 -0.08104988 1.701932 0.2352207
## ACF1
## Training set 0.01834777Final Base Model
